Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082026
500 AM AST Tue Sep 29 2026

Satellite imagery shows Hanna's convective structure has not changed 
much and still displays an exposed low-level center due to strong 
westerly vertical wind shear. The deepest convection remains 
displaced east of the tropical storm's center. A 0225 UTC OSCAT 
scatterometer pass revealed an asymmetric wind field. The latest 
TAFB Dvorak fix was T2.0/30 kt, slightly below objective estimates 
ranging between 34 and 43 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the 
initial intensity is held at 40 kt.

The initial motion continues east-southeastward at 105/13 kt. Hanna 
is embedded in the flow between a longwave trough to its northeast 
and a larger subtropical ridge to its south. This synoptic pattern 
should result in a continued east-southeastward motion over the next 
24 h or so, with a gradual slowdown in forward speed as the 
mid-latitude trough leaves Hanna behind. Much of the track guidance 
then shows a slightly quicker east-northeastward motion after the 
cyclone becomes vertically shallow and influenced by a low-level 
ridge centered south of the Azores. The updated NHC track forecast 
was largely unchanged from the previous advisory, roughly in between 
the simple (TVCN) and corrected consensus (HCCA) aids.

Tropical Storm Hanna is forecast to persist in a moisture-starved 
environment, with moderate to strong vertical wind shear prevailing 
over the next 48 to 72 h. However, some near-term fluctuations in 
intensity are possible during this period as intermittent bursts of 
deep convection well east of the center may allow for slight 
intensification. Thereafter, Hanna is expected to be devoid of deep 
convection around the 60 h mark, degenerating into a post-tropical 
cyclone at that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 35.2N  46.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  29/1800Z 34.4N  44.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  30/0600Z 33.9N  43.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  30/1800Z 34.2N  42.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  01/0600Z 34.9N  40.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
60H  01/1800Z 35.8N  38.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  02/0600Z 37.0N  35.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pierce/Pasch