Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
500 AM AST Tue Sep 29 2026

Proxy-visible satellite imagery shows that the convection around Fay 
has increasingly become more sheared in the last several hours. 
Infrared imagery does still show some of the convection has cloud 
tops near -70 C. In addition, the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix was 
2.0/30 KT, and the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are 
in the range of 33-43 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been 
held at 35 kt for this advisory. 

The storm is still moving toward the southwest with an estimated 
initial motion of 235/11 kt. Fay is expected to keep a general 
southwestward to west-southwestward motion for the next couple of 
days as the cyclone is guided by the flow along the southern 
periphery of a mid-level ridge situated over the central Atlantic. 
The current NHC track forecast is almost identical to the previous 
one with just a few minor adjustments based on the HCCA and GDMI 
forecast aids.

With the convection expected to pulsate for the next couple of days, 
the intensity will also fluctuate as well. However that convection 
will likely become increasingly separated from the center as the 
SHIPS guidance indicates increasing vertical wind shear over the 
couple of days. Based on the global models, Fay will struggle to 
maintain deep convection as it moves into a more stable air mass and 
an area of upper-level convergence. The current NHC intensity 
forecast is based on the HCCA and GDMI forecast guidance and Fay is 
still expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in a day or so.  
The global models show the system degenerating into a trough 
afterwards. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 25.0N  46.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  29/1800Z 24.0N  48.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  30/0600Z 23.1N  50.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  30/1800Z 22.7N  52.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  01/0600Z 22.6N  54.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Katz