Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
900 PM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026

Deep convection continues near and northeast of Fay's center, 
though the southwestern portion of the circulation is partially 
exposed.  There has been no significant change to the satellite 
intensity estimates, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt.  Fay 
has some chance to intensify overnight before an increase in 
easterly shear helps mix in very dry air outside the central core. 
The shear is expected to get fairly strong by the weekend, which 
should cause Fay to decay into a post-tropical cyclone in a couple 
of days.  No significant changes were made to the intensity 
forecast.

Fay's initial motion is unchanged at 270/5 kt.  A ridge over the 
central Atlantic should steer the storm slowly westward during the 
next few days.  Track guidance is in relatively good agreement, and 
the new forecast is basically an update of the previous one, near 
the Google DeepMind and HCCA aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 29.8N  41.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  25/0600Z 29.8N  42.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  25/1800Z 29.7N  43.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  26/0600Z 29.5N  44.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  26/1800Z 29.5N  45.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H  27/0600Z 29.5N  46.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake